研究西非经共体的贸易创造和贸易转移:案例在多哥
时间：2020-09-08 来源：51mbalunwen
本文是一篇国际贸易论文研究，贸易协定和区域一体化背后的动机在于可能使成员国受益的福利。西非经共体成立后，于2013年在其他地区采用了共同的外部关税同盟，以实现经济一体化。TEC的采用使多哥的关税税率降低，从而降低了增加出口需求的贸易成本。这项研究的主要目的是查明西非经共体的成立是否导致了多哥的贸易创造。除此之外，主要目的是要明确多哥是否更有可能与其西非经共体伙伴进行贸易，而不是与外界进行贸易。为了达到这些目标，描述性证据和回归系列被应用。
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study and problem statement
Regional and bilateral trade agreements have proliferated around the world in the last thirty years. The World Trade Organization (WTO) had notified 575 regional trade agreements (RTAs) in 2013, of which 379 were in force. Among the RTAs, 90% are free trade areas (FTAs) and 10% are customs unions (CUs). Most of the world trade are between the countries associated with these agreements. This global acceleration of trade agreements activity has sparked a discussion between economists concerning the benefits to conclude such agreements. According to Clarete et al. (2003), in 2000 about 97% of international trade involved countries having joined at least one of the RTAs. However, this share was 72% in 1990. Beside EU, the most famous are EFTA, NAFTA, MERCOSUR, ASEAN and its ASEAN, AFTA, EAC, COMESA and ECOWAS.
Regional agreements are concluded by countries from the same region engaged in a process of regional integration. Beside RTAs, Africa also keeps external trade relations on the basis of bilateral and multilateral agreements. The African continent includes some fifty countries, most of them small. This is why intra-African trade remains weak. The markets accessible to African companies are indeed narrow and often compartmentalized because of the lack of communication channels and the presence of customs barriers. The importance of regionalism is motivated by its ability to promote trade and economic development through specialization and comparative advantage, to foster institution building and legal harmonization that increases the return on investment; it’s also motivated by the improvement of its members welfare that depend on the direction of the trade flows after the integration. However the geographic proximity of countries associated with similarities in cultural and historical characteristics, has generated growing enthusiasm for Regional Trade Agreements. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have become the important ways of trade liberalism as narrower pacts appear easy to negotiate, not only do they take less time but they can also response to the necessity of both parties. According to Daniel (2008: 86), regional integration and cooperation improve countries' economic growth and investment condition by providing better market access for their products and by promoting their exports growth and diversification. The obvious thing is that African countries are trying to leave of business practices inherited from the colonial era, which favor trade with their former colonies rather than between them.
.........................
1.2 Research questions
The research will focus on four critical questions:
-How ECOWAS trade agreement has affected trade performance in Togo?
- What is the role of partner states GDP in the trade flows of ECOWAS countries?
- To what extent does the distance influence trade among ECOWAS countries?
- What implications the results in the above three questions suggest for policy?
The research comprises five chapters. Chapter1 indicates the topic introduction, the background of study, the research questions, the research objectives and the research hypothesis. After that, chapter2 will concerns an overview on ECOWAS and Togo’ trade performance, economy features and challenge. Chapter3, demonstrates theoretical framework and review of literatures regarding the entire topic for generating the empirical models. Chapter 4, presents the methodology and data that will be used in this study, the empirical results and their comments. Conclusion and recommendation are defined in chapter5. Finally, at the end, the references designating the data authenticity and the appendices are also presented.
............................
CHAPTER 2 OVERVIEW ON ECOWAS
2.1 Members and Historical background
Prior to the ECOWAS creation, the West African territory was constituted at the regional level by a group of states with different administrative and colonial systems that defined the boundaries of the fifteen states located in this zone. Today although the member countries of this community use three different official languages (English, French and Portuguese), they have more than a thousand local languages and some of them cross-border. The desire to combine political and economic forces have been recognized as a step towards creating common prosperity in the region. For this purpose, the first desire for integration goes back to 1945 with CFA franc creation, which brought French-speaking states of the region together in a single monetary union. Then in 1964, a West African Economic Union was proposed and led to the signing of an agreement in 1965 by Guinea, C?te d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, these initiatives gave no concrete results until 1972 when the idea of regional integration was set. Then projects were put forward and served as a basis for elaboration in 1975 of Lagos Treaty that gave birth to ECOWAS.
ECOWAS aims to promote political and economic cooperation between it Member States. The community is therefore in step with history because well before colonization, West African populations were among the most mobile populations in the world. In addition the migration across borders, carried out by women in their commercial activities, makes them potential factors of integration. The population of West Africa has grown from 70 million to almost 300 million between 1950 and 2010. At the end of 2014, this population was almost 40% of that of sub-Saharan Africa. Considering U.S projections, the population of the region is predicted to reach from 550 to 600 million by 2050. West Africa is the world's youngest region and most densely populated region of Africa with 5% of the world's population and an area covering 40% of sub-Saharan Africa. The different socio-cultural dimensions within ECOWAS are an important factors in restoring security and peace. Building on the past, community leaders have made many sacrifices to maintain the region political structure. In 1976, Cape Verde (Cabo Verde), one of the Portuguese-speaking countries in the region, joined ECOWAS and Mauritania withdrew in December 2000. ECOWAS today is a regional organization that include 15 African states such as: Cabo Verde, Benin, Mali, Ghana, Liberia, the Gambia, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, C?te d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. These states have a common economic interest and both geopolitical and cultural ties. The western and southern boundaries of West African are formed by the Atlantic Ocean while colonial boundaries are still visible within the news boundaries between contemporary West African states.
.............................
2.2 Economic features of ECOWAS and analysis to others trade blocs
2.2.1 The growth of African economies
The growth forecasts indicate a slowdown African Gross Domestic Product. After falling to 3.3% in 2015, the continent's real growth rate in 2016 was 1.7%, its lowest level since two decades. The economic difficulties faced by the major African economies, particularly Nigeria and South Africa, which are suffering from financial conditions and falling commodity prices, explain this slowdown. This negative dynamic is observed in all major regions of the continent, although the contraction extent in global activity is quite heterogeneous.
West Africa, representing about 30% of Africa's population and 28% of the continent’s GDP (measured at current prices in 2015), is the region most affected by the decline in global activity. The average growth of its real GDP fell to -0.2%, this because of the economic recession of Nigeria that is the main economy of the region. Thus, the year 2016 was marked by a fall in regional wealth estimated at USD 571.4 billion against USD 637.4 billion in 2015. Therefore, the average income per inhabitant of ECOWAS fall by nearly 13% or USD 1629 in 2016 compared with USD 1866 in 2015. However, the overall negative situation in West Africa contrasts with the countries favorable economic performance in the region.
Southern Africa, representing 17% of population and 23% of the continent's GDP, is the second region to experience a sharp slowdown in its real product. In 2016, the growth rate was 0.7%, a sharp decline compared to the level of 2% reached in 2015. The nominal GDP was USD 472.4 billion in 2016 against 528.2 billion in 2015. This mixed result, which has lasted for a few years, is due to the economic difficulties of South Africa, the main economy of the region, which experienced a sluggish growth in 2016 (0.12%). Since global financial crisis beginning in 2008, this country has suffered more than the others African countries. The negative impact is due to the fragility of international situation. To a lesser extent, the sluggishness of the economic situation in Southern Africa is also due to the sharp decline of Angola growth (0%), which is suffering from the commodity prices falling, mainly oil.
...............................
CHAPTER 3 LITERATURE REVIEW .............................. 19
3.1 Theorical Literature ................................ 19
3.1.1 Notion on Trade Agreement ..................................... 19
3.1.2 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion ........................... 21
CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY............................... 29
4.1 Theorical foundation .............................................. 29
4.2 Empirical Model Data and Analysis .................................. 30
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................... 43
5.1 Conclusion .............................. 43
5.2 Recommendations................................. 43
CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY
4.1 Theorical foundation
The gravity model The study of trade creation and trade diversion was made by using extended gravity model, based on the Newtonian gravity laws in physics, the gravity model used in equation (1) explain the determinants of trade (Agbodji, 2008). Begin with Newton’s law for the gravitational force (GFij) between two objects i and j. Let us illustrate this law through the equation bellow:
In this equation, the gravitational force is proportional to the masses of objects (Mi and Mj) and indirectly proportional to the distance between them (Dij). By introducing the determinants of trade, the bilateral trade gravity model becomes:
Eijt is the exports volume from country i to country j. The gravity model does not provide details on choosing a variable to represent bilateral trade, it can be the imports, exports or total trade. However, Elbadawi (1995) argued that imports and exports are determined by the same factors (Agbodji 2008). This study uses Export volume to represent the dependent variable.
GDPi and GDPj are the real gross domestic product of countries i and j respectively. According to the gravity model theory, economic size variables have a positive relationship with trade. Therefore, the coefficients of GDPi and GDPj should be positive that is, β1and β2 > 0.
..............................
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Conclusion
The motivation behind trade agreement and regional integration lies in the welfare that may benefit the member economies. After it creation ECOWAS adopted the common external tarrif in 2013 in other to achieve economic integration. The adoption of TEC led to the tarrif rate reduction for Togo, therefore decrease the trade cost that increase export demand.
This study had the main objective that was to find whether the formation of ECOWAS had led to trade creation in Togo. Besides, the main objective was implicitly to find whether Togo is more likely to trade with its ECOWAS partners than outside. To achieve these objectives, descriptive evidence and regression series have been applied.
Descriptive evidence has been made using graphs while the regressions have been done and the model corrected for the influence of autocorrelation in the residual term. The Regressions have been done on the key variables of gravity model. Apart those key variables, control variables have been used to reinforce the obtained results. In order to determine the effect of ECOWAS on Togo's trade flows, the variable ECOWAS1 has been introduced and the results show an evidence of trade creation. That mean the bilateral trade of Togo is determined by the standard variables of gravity model. GDP of Togo impact positively trade while distance negatively affect trade.
reference(omitted)
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study and problem statement
Regional and bilateral trade agreements have proliferated around the world in the last thirty years. The World Trade Organization (WTO) had notified 575 regional trade agreements (RTAs) in 2013, of which 379 were in force. Among the RTAs, 90% are free trade areas (FTAs) and 10% are customs unions (CUs). Most of the world trade are between the countries associated with these agreements. This global acceleration of trade agreements activity has sparked a discussion between economists concerning the benefits to conclude such agreements. According to Clarete et al. (2003), in 2000 about 97% of international trade involved countries having joined at least one of the RTAs. However, this share was 72% in 1990. Beside EU, the most famous are EFTA, NAFTA, MERCOSUR, ASEAN and its ASEAN, AFTA, EAC, COMESA and ECOWAS.
Regional agreements are concluded by countries from the same region engaged in a process of regional integration. Beside RTAs, Africa also keeps external trade relations on the basis of bilateral and multilateral agreements. The African continent includes some fifty countries, most of them small. This is why intra-African trade remains weak. The markets accessible to African companies are indeed narrow and often compartmentalized because of the lack of communication channels and the presence of customs barriers. The importance of regionalism is motivated by its ability to promote trade and economic development through specialization and comparative advantage, to foster institution building and legal harmonization that increases the return on investment; it’s also motivated by the improvement of its members welfare that depend on the direction of the trade flows after the integration. However the geographic proximity of countries associated with similarities in cultural and historical characteristics, has generated growing enthusiasm for Regional Trade Agreements. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have become the important ways of trade liberalism as narrower pacts appear easy to negotiate, not only do they take less time but they can also response to the necessity of both parties. According to Daniel (2008: 86), regional integration and cooperation improve countries' economic growth and investment condition by providing better market access for their products and by promoting their exports growth and diversification. The obvious thing is that African countries are trying to leave of business practices inherited from the colonial era, which favor trade with their former colonies rather than between them.
.........................
1.2 Research questions
The research will focus on four critical questions:
-How ECOWAS trade agreement has affected trade performance in Togo?
- What is the role of partner states GDP in the trade flows of ECOWAS countries?
- To what extent does the distance influence trade among ECOWAS countries?
- What implications the results in the above three questions suggest for policy?
The research comprises five chapters. Chapter1 indicates the topic introduction, the background of study, the research questions, the research objectives and the research hypothesis. After that, chapter2 will concerns an overview on ECOWAS and Togo’ trade performance, economy features and challenge. Chapter3, demonstrates theoretical framework and review of literatures regarding the entire topic for generating the empirical models. Chapter 4, presents the methodology and data that will be used in this study, the empirical results and their comments. Conclusion and recommendation are defined in chapter5. Finally, at the end, the references designating the data authenticity and the appendices are also presented.
............................
CHAPTER 2 OVERVIEW ON ECOWAS
2.1 Members and Historical background
Prior to the ECOWAS creation, the West African territory was constituted at the regional level by a group of states with different administrative and colonial systems that defined the boundaries of the fifteen states located in this zone. Today although the member countries of this community use three different official languages (English, French and Portuguese), they have more than a thousand local languages and some of them cross-border. The desire to combine political and economic forces have been recognized as a step towards creating common prosperity in the region. For this purpose, the first desire for integration goes back to 1945 with CFA franc creation, which brought French-speaking states of the region together in a single monetary union. Then in 1964, a West African Economic Union was proposed and led to the signing of an agreement in 1965 by Guinea, C?te d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, these initiatives gave no concrete results until 1972 when the idea of regional integration was set. Then projects were put forward and served as a basis for elaboration in 1975 of Lagos Treaty that gave birth to ECOWAS.
ECOWAS aims to promote political and economic cooperation between it Member States. The community is therefore in step with history because well before colonization, West African populations were among the most mobile populations in the world. In addition the migration across borders, carried out by women in their commercial activities, makes them potential factors of integration. The population of West Africa has grown from 70 million to almost 300 million between 1950 and 2010. At the end of 2014, this population was almost 40% of that of sub-Saharan Africa. Considering U.S projections, the population of the region is predicted to reach from 550 to 600 million by 2050. West Africa is the world's youngest region and most densely populated region of Africa with 5% of the world's population and an area covering 40% of sub-Saharan Africa. The different socio-cultural dimensions within ECOWAS are an important factors in restoring security and peace. Building on the past, community leaders have made many sacrifices to maintain the region political structure. In 1976, Cape Verde (Cabo Verde), one of the Portuguese-speaking countries in the region, joined ECOWAS and Mauritania withdrew in December 2000. ECOWAS today is a regional organization that include 15 African states such as: Cabo Verde, Benin, Mali, Ghana, Liberia, the Gambia, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, C?te d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. These states have a common economic interest and both geopolitical and cultural ties. The western and southern boundaries of West African are formed by the Atlantic Ocean while colonial boundaries are still visible within the news boundaries between contemporary West African states.
.............................
2.2 Economic features of ECOWAS and analysis to others trade blocs
2.2.1 The growth of African economies
The growth forecasts indicate a slowdown African Gross Domestic Product. After falling to 3.3% in 2015, the continent's real growth rate in 2016 was 1.7%, its lowest level since two decades. The economic difficulties faced by the major African economies, particularly Nigeria and South Africa, which are suffering from financial conditions and falling commodity prices, explain this slowdown. This negative dynamic is observed in all major regions of the continent, although the contraction extent in global activity is quite heterogeneous.
West Africa, representing about 30% of Africa's population and 28% of the continent’s GDP (measured at current prices in 2015), is the region most affected by the decline in global activity. The average growth of its real GDP fell to -0.2%, this because of the economic recession of Nigeria that is the main economy of the region. Thus, the year 2016 was marked by a fall in regional wealth estimated at USD 571.4 billion against USD 637.4 billion in 2015. Therefore, the average income per inhabitant of ECOWAS fall by nearly 13% or USD 1629 in 2016 compared with USD 1866 in 2015. However, the overall negative situation in West Africa contrasts with the countries favorable economic performance in the region.
Southern Africa, representing 17% of population and 23% of the continent's GDP, is the second region to experience a sharp slowdown in its real product. In 2016, the growth rate was 0.7%, a sharp decline compared to the level of 2% reached in 2015. The nominal GDP was USD 472.4 billion in 2016 against 528.2 billion in 2015. This mixed result, which has lasted for a few years, is due to the economic difficulties of South Africa, the main economy of the region, which experienced a sluggish growth in 2016 (0.12%). Since global financial crisis beginning in 2008, this country has suffered more than the others African countries. The negative impact is due to the fragility of international situation. To a lesser extent, the sluggishness of the economic situation in Southern Africa is also due to the sharp decline of Angola growth (0%), which is suffering from the commodity prices falling, mainly oil.
...............................
CHAPTER 3 LITERATURE REVIEW .............................. 19
3.1 Theorical Literature ................................ 19
3.1.1 Notion on Trade Agreement ..................................... 19
3.1.2 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion ........................... 21
CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY............................... 29
4.1 Theorical foundation .............................................. 29
4.2 Empirical Model Data and Analysis .................................. 30
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................... 43
5.1 Conclusion .............................. 43
5.2 Recommendations................................. 43
CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY
4.1 Theorical foundation
The gravity model The study of trade creation and trade diversion was made by using extended gravity model, based on the Newtonian gravity laws in physics, the gravity model used in equation (1) explain the determinants of trade (Agbodji, 2008). Begin with Newton’s law for the gravitational force (GFij) between two objects i and j. Let us illustrate this law through the equation bellow:
In this equation, the gravitational force is proportional to the masses of objects (Mi and Mj) and indirectly proportional to the distance between them (Dij). By introducing the determinants of trade, the bilateral trade gravity model becomes:
Eijt is the exports volume from country i to country j. The gravity model does not provide details on choosing a variable to represent bilateral trade, it can be the imports, exports or total trade. However, Elbadawi (1995) argued that imports and exports are determined by the same factors (Agbodji 2008). This study uses Export volume to represent the dependent variable.
GDPi and GDPj are the real gross domestic product of countries i and j respectively. According to the gravity model theory, economic size variables have a positive relationship with trade. Therefore, the coefficients of GDPi and GDPj should be positive that is, β1and β2 > 0.
..............................
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Conclusion
The motivation behind trade agreement and regional integration lies in the welfare that may benefit the member economies. After it creation ECOWAS adopted the common external tarrif in 2013 in other to achieve economic integration. The adoption of TEC led to the tarrif rate reduction for Togo, therefore decrease the trade cost that increase export demand.
This study had the main objective that was to find whether the formation of ECOWAS had led to trade creation in Togo. Besides, the main objective was implicitly to find whether Togo is more likely to trade with its ECOWAS partners than outside. To achieve these objectives, descriptive evidence and regression series have been applied.
Descriptive evidence has been made using graphs while the regressions have been done and the model corrected for the influence of autocorrelation in the residual term. The Regressions have been done on the key variables of gravity model. Apart those key variables, control variables have been used to reinforce the obtained results. In order to determine the effect of ECOWAS on Togo's trade flows, the variable ECOWAS1 has been introduced and the results show an evidence of trade creation. That mean the bilateral trade of Togo is determined by the standard variables of gravity model. GDP of Togo impact positively trade while distance negatively affect trade.
reference(omitted)
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